AGP Executive Report

Oil Expansion: Congolese billionaire Lucien Ebata says Trident OGX aims to lift output from about 2,500 barrels a day to 45,000–50,000 within two years, with the Mengo field central to the plan. Currency: Five older CFA-franc coin series lose legal-tender status across CEMAC, including Congo, on November 1. Holders will have a year to exchange them, though locations and procedures are still to be announced. Public Investment: Congo’s proposed 2027 budget sets aside 680 billion CFA francs for investment, including infrastructure, energy, transport and agriculture; Parliament must still approve the bill. The government projects 6.9% growth and aims to lower public debt to 80.9% of GDP. Port Infrastructure: Concrete work is complete on Pointe-Noire’s new 750-metre quay, designed for the world’s largest container ships. Equipment installation comes next. Money Transfers: Congo plans to register and monitor money-transfer operators under its 2026 finance law. Unregistered operators could face fines of 20 million CFA francs. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has assigned Congo a positive sovereign outlook, citing regional reforms and stronger commodity prices, while warning that debt risks remain.

2027 Budget: Congo’s draft budget targets 6.9% growth and 112 million barrels of oil production next year. It plans 680 billion CFA francs in public investment, with 327.7 billion from domestic funds, and aims to cut public debt to 80.9% of GDP. External financing depends on an IMF programme. Pointe-Noire Port: Concrete work is complete on a 750-metre quay designed for the world’s largest container ships. The project still needs equipment before operations can begin. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has given Congo a positive sovereign outlook, citing regional reforms and stronger commodity prices, but warned that debt and financing risks remain. Money Transfers: Operators must register with the regulator and report transfers monthly. Unregistered agents risk fines of up to 20 million CFA francs. CFA Coins: Five older coin series will lose legal-tender status across CEMAC from November 1; a one-year exchange period is planned.

Budget and Growth: The government’s 2027 draft budget plans 680 billion CFA francs in public investment, with 327.7 billion from domestic resources. It forecasts 6.9% growth, backed by higher oil output, and aims to lower public debt to 80.9% of GDP; access to external financing depends on an IMF programme. Port Expansion: Pointe-Noire’s new 750-metre quay has cleared its concrete construction phase. Once fitted with equipment, its 17-metre depth and two berths are designed to handle the world’s largest container ships. Financial Regulation: Congo’s money-transfer operators must register and report transactions monthly under the 2026 finance law. Unregistered or non-compliant agents face fines of up to 20 million CFA francs. Currency Update: Five older CFA-franc coin series lose legal-tender status across CEMAC on November 1. BEAC has announced a one-year exchange period, though the practical arrangements are still pending. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has given the Republic of Congo a positive sovereign outlook, citing regional reforms and stronger commodity prices, while warning that debt-service burdens and limited public revenue remain risks.

Currency: Five older CEMAC coin series lose legal-tender status on November 1. Holders will have a year to exchange them, though the central bank has yet to announce where. 2027 Budget: Congo’s draft budget earmarks 680 billion CFA francs for public investment, including 327.7 billion from domestic resources. It forecasts 6.9% growth, supported by higher oil output, and remains subject to parliamentary approval. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has given Congo a positive outlook, citing reforms and stronger commodity prices, but warned that debt-servicing costs and weak revenue collection remain risks. Port Expansion: Concrete work is complete on a new 750-metre quay at Pointe-Noire, designed to handle the world’s largest container ships once equipment is installed. Money Transfers: Congo plans to register and monitor transfer operators, with a fine of up to 20 million CFA francs for breaches of the rules.

2027 Budget: Congo plans 680 billion FCFA in public investment, including 327.7 billion from domestic funds, for infrastructure, energy, transport and agriculture. The draft forecasts 6.9% growth, led partly by higher oil output, and a lower debt-to-GDP ratio; external financing depends on an IMF programme. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has given the Republic of Congo a positive outlook, citing reforms, stronger commodity prices and improved financing access, while warning that debt-service costs and limited revenues remain risks. Port Expansion: Pointe-Noire’s new 750-metre quay has cleared its concrete-construction stage. Designed for the world’s largest container ships, it is moving to equipment installation. Money Transfers: Congo’s regulator plans to digitize oversight of money-transfer operators. Under the 2026 finance law, providers must register and report monthly transactions or risk fines of up to 20 million CFA francs. CEMAC Currency: Five older CFA franc coin series will lose legal-tender status on November 1 across the six-member bloc, including Congo; holders will have a one-year exchange period.

Money Transfers: Congo plans to require transfer agents to register with the regulator and report transactions monthly. Operators that fail to comply could face fines of 20 million CFA francs. Pointe-Noire Port: Concrete work is complete on the new 750-metre quay at Môle Est. Once fitted out, it will add two berths for the world’s largest container ships and 26 hectares of storage. 2027 Budget: The government forecasts 6.9% growth, up from 5.6% in 2026, based partly on oil production of 112 million barrels. It expects public debt to fall to 80.9% of GDP. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has shifted its outlook for sub-Saharan Africa to positive, naming the Republic of Congo among eight countries with that outlook, while warning that debt costs and weak revenue remain risks. Fuel Supply: Prime Minister Anatole Collinet Makosso linked persistent shortages to low refinery output and limited funds for fuel imports; Coraf’s restart was scheduled for October 8.

Port Expansion: Congo Terminal has completed the concrete works on a 750-metre quay at Pointe-Noire’s Môle Est. The project is designed for 24,000-TEU vessels, with two berths and a 17-metre depth; equipment installation is next. 2027 Budget: The government’s draft forecasts 6.9% growth, assuming oil output of 112 million barrels, and projects public debt falling to 80.9% of GDP from 88.6%. The bill now goes to Parliament. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has turned positive on sub-Saharan Africa, naming Congo among eight countries with positive outlooks, but cautioned that debt costs and weak revenues remain risks. Fuel and IMF: Prime Minister Anatole Collinet Makosso linked recurring shortages to Coraf’s shutdown, fewer crude supplies and SNPC’s limited capacity to finance imports, while raising the prospect of a new IMF arrangement. Borrowing Costs: CEMAC’s average effective lending rate fell to 10.94% in the second quarter; Congo’s was 10%, below the regional average.

Fuel and Fiscal Pressure: Prime Minister Anatole Collinet Makosso told the PCT leadership that Congo’s fuel shortages reflect structural problems: CORAF’s refinery shutdown, fewer crude lots and SNPC’s limited capacity to finance imports. Petrol sells for 775 CFA francs a litre, against a reported import cost of up to 2,000 francs, adding pressure for a possible IMF deal. Credit Outlook: Moody’s has raised its outlook for the Republic of Congo to positive, citing reforms, strong commodity prices and better financing access; it expects sub-Saharan African economies to grow 4.3% in 2026 and 2027, while warning that debt costs remain a risk. Oil Earnings: The World Bank says higher hydrocarbon export revenues are improving Congo’s external position, alongside other oil exporters in the region. Industry and Investment: Italy and Congo are exploring industrial cooperation through special economic zones, while SOCAR Downstream has been selected as a consultant for Congo’s refinery modernization. Senegalese poultry entrepreneur Babacar Ngom also plans a $35 million poultry complex in Congo.

Regional Outlook: Moody’s upgraded its outlook for sub-Saharan Africa to positive, citing reforms, strong commodity prices and improved financing access. It forecasts 4.3% growth in 2026 and 2027, but warns that debt costs and limited government revenue remain risks. Industrial Investment: A Brazzaville seminar brought Congolese and Italian officials and businesses together to explore special economic zones, industrial value chains and workforce training. Energy: SOCAR Downstream was selected as a consultant for Congo’s refinery modernization, a potential step toward upgrading key energy infrastructure. Agribusiness: Senegalese poultry investor Babacar Ngom plans a $35 million complex in Congo. Digital Infrastructure: Congo is among three countries working with Kazakhstan on satellite export projects worth about $70 million combined; plans call for a shared Earth-observation constellation by 2030. Public Finances: Marien Ngouabi University staff say they are owed seven months of salaries and have threatened a strike, highlighting pressure on public-sector payments.

SEZ Push in Brazzaville: A two-day seminar in Brazzaville compares Italian and Congolese special economic zone models, aiming to unlock new industrial cooperation and investment between the Republic of Congo and Italy. Public Health & Trade: The UN warns that medicine trafficking is a major Central Africa threat, with at least 251 tonnes seized across CEMAC countries from 2020-2025—fueling counterfeit and diverted drugs that can cause treatment failures and avoidable deaths. Higher Education Pay Crisis: Marien Ngouabi University staff in Brazzaville report seven months of salary arrears and give the government 72 hours to respond before a strike. Biodiversity Financing Plan: Congo launches Biofin to build a National Biodiversity Finance Plan, turning its 2025-2030 biodiversity strategy into funded, measurable action. Energy/Industry Deal: SOCAR Downstream is selected as consultant for Congo refinery modernization, signaling continued push to upgrade downstream capacity. Business & Connectivity: MTN Ghana secures $202m spectrum licences to expand 5G—an example of regional telecom investment momentum relevant to Congo’s own connectivity ambitions. Sports & Identity: A Congolese-born golfer living in Ghana earns a spot at the Turkish Airlines World Golf Cup grand final, highlighting cross-border opportunity.

Public Health & Trade: A UNODC/WHO/CEMAC report warns that Central Africa’s medicine shortages and high prices are fueling an illicit market, including counterfeit and unapproved drugs. Enforcement Snapshot: Authorities seized 251 tonnes of medical products across Cameroon, CAR, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon from 2020–2025, with seizures rising sharply by 2024–2025. Regional Finance & Policy: The African Monetary Institute is moving toward operationalization after a September target, with the AU aiming to harmonize monetary and fiscal policy before any future currency role. Central Bank Governance: Congo’s Central Bank is pushing CONFEP 2026 recommendations into a roadmap with deadlines, indicators and clear responsibilities for provincial entities. Energy Deal: SOCAR Downstream was selected as project management consultant for SNPC’s CORAF refinery modernization, supporting the Pre-FEED phase. Digital Connectivity: CEMAC’s broader financial and connectivity push continues as Congo’s regional connectivity efforts gain momentum, while telecom investment elsewhere signals demand for faster networks. Security & Health Risk: Kenya confirmed its first imported Ebola case from Congo, raising cross-border health monitoring stakes for the region.

Energy & Industry: SOCAR Downstream has been picked as Project Management Consultant for SNPC’s CORAF oil refinery modernization, supporting the Pre-FEED phase—another step in Azerbaijan–Republic of Congo downstream cooperation. Regional Infrastructure: CEMAC, APPO and CABEF signed the revised CAPS Central Africa Pipeline System MoU, aiming to build an integrated $14bn oil-and-gas pipeline network over a three-year push for feasibility studies and investment mobilization. Environment Finance: Congo launched Biofin to build a National Biodiversity Finance Plan, tackling the big question of how to fund its 2025–2030 biodiversity strategy. Central Banking Governance: Central Bank of Congo Governor André Wameso urged CONFEP 2026 recommendations to be turned into a roadmap with deadlines, indicators and clear responsibilities for provincial entities. Culture & Business Calendar: Brazzaville’s Relico literary festival confirmed its 10th edition dates for 16–18 September 2027, signaling continued institutional support for creative industries.

Energy & Industry Deal: SOCAR Downstream has been selected as Project Management Consultant for SNPC’s CORAF refinery modernization, supporting the Pre-FEED phase and deepening Azerbaijan–Congo energy cooperation. Regional Energy Infrastructure: CEMAC, APPO and CABEF signed the revised MoU for the $14bn Central Africa Pipeline System (CAPS), setting a three-year push for feasibility studies and investment mobilization to boost cross-border oil and gas trade. Banking & Risk: BEAC reports CEMAC banks’ non-performing loan ratio fell to 15.4% at end-June 2026 (from 17.4% a year earlier), signaling improving credit quality across the region including Congo. Agribusiness Investment: Senegal’s Sedima plans a $35m integrated poultry and farming complex in Congo’s Pool department, targeting annual output of corn, soybeans and broiler chicken. Trade & Connectivity: CAMTEL and SPIN Gabon agreed on the CAB-CORRIDOR initiative to expand Central Africa terrestrial fiber links among Cameroon, Gabon and the Republic of the Congo, with operational modalities due in October 2026. Governance & Public Services: A Brazzaville/Pointe-Noire commentary argues public transport failures are undermining constitutional obligations and everyday access to work, schools, health and markets. Security & Business Integrity: A Canada-based Congolese pastor pleaded guilty in Uganda to a $600,000 bogus gold deal tied to Serena Hotel Kampala, highlighting fraud risks around high-value commodities.

Central Africa Energy: CEMAC, APPO and CABEF signed the revised CAPS pipeline MoU in Brazzaville, aiming to build an integrated $14bn oil-and-gas pipeline network with a three-year push for feasibility studies and investment mobilization. Regional Connectivity: Cameroon’s CAMTEL and Gabon’s SPIN Gabon agreed on the CAB-CORRIDOR fiber-optic interconnection plan with the Republic of the Congo, targeting operational modalities and technical execution by October 2026. Banking Health (CEMAC): BEAC reported the non-performing loan ratio across CEMAC banks fell to 15.4% in June 2026 from 17.4% a year earlier, signaling improving credit quality. Congo Business & Investment: Sedima Congo SA plans a $35m integrated poultry and feed complex in Pool (corn, soy, hatchery, slaughter and packaging), with financing involving BGFIBank and BDEAC. Trade & Diplomacy: Russia and the Republic of the Congo inked a 2026–2028 cooperation plan covering energy infrastructure, industry, transport, agriculture, digital development and education. Local Economy: A commentary in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire highlights worsening public transport—potholes, congestion, fuel issues and weak state transport capacity—arguing mobility is a constitutional duty. Mining Sector Scrutiny: CSOs and mining-affected communities called for stronger Liberia mining reforms, warning that weak enforcement and transparency can turn mineral wealth into “growth without development.”

Central Africa Energy Deal: The Republic of Congo joined CEMAC and regional energy bodies to sign the revised Central Africa Pipeline System (CAPS) MoU in Brazzaville, aiming to build an integrated $14bn oil and gas pipeline network over the next three years, starting with feasibility studies and investment mobilization. Regional Connectivity: CAMTEL and SPIN Gabon agreed on the CAB-CORRIDOR fiber-optic interconnection project to boost cross-border data traffic across Cameroon, Gabon and Congo, with operational and technical frameworks targeted for October 2026. Agribusiness Investment: Sedima Congo SA, part of Senegal’s Sedima group, plans a $35m integrated poultry and feed complex in Pool (Nkouo), backed by BGFIBank and BDEAC, targeting annual output including 2,200 tonnes of broiler chicken. Banking Health: BEAC reported CEMAC banks’ non-performing loan ratio fell to 15.4% by end-June 2026 from 17.4% a year earlier, signaling improving credit quality. Urban Transport Pressure: A Brazzaville/Pointe-Noire commentary highlights worsening public transport—potholes, congestion, fuel shortages and weak state transport capacity—arguing mobility is a constitutional duty. Trade & Diplomacy: Russia and Congo signed a 2026–2028 plan for trade and economic cooperation covering energy infrastructure, industry, transport, agriculture, digital development and education.

Gold Fraud Case: A Canadian pastor, Didier Borromee Bitome Kifoueti, pleaded guilty in Kampala to obtaining $600,000 (about 2.3 billion shillings) via a bogus gold deal, while his co-accused deny charges—highlighting cross-border financial crime risks. Mining & Arbitration: An OpEd revisits Sundance Resources’ ICC arbitrations tied to the Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore project, underscoring how governments’ mineral sovereignty and investor protections are being tested in major cross-country disputes. UN Diplomacy: Congo pushed for UN Security Council reform at the 81st UN General Assembly, renewing its bid for a non-permanent seat and backing Africa’s demand for two permanent seats with veto power. Regional Energy Infrastructure: CEMAC, APPO and CABEF signed the revised CAPS pipeline MoU in Brazzaville, aiming to mobilize investment for a $14bn integrated oil-and-gas network. Banking Health: BEAC reported CEMAC banks’ non-performing loan ratio fell to 15.4% by June 2026, a sign of improving credit quality. Agribusiness Investment: Sedima plans a $35m integrated poultry and feed complex in Congo’s Pool department, targeting large annual output and local supply chains. Digital Connectivity: CAMTEL and SPIN Gabon agreed to advance the CAB-CORRIDOR fiber project to boost cross-border internet integration across Central Africa.